Gamblers vardag

We spoke about Jubilo Iwata before their loss to Ventforet last week , when I said ……

”They were in freefall over the second half of the last campaign and were fortunate they had such a solid start. Iwata collected a league low 8 points over the last ten games, they have only picked up five this time round through 8 rounds , 13 points over 18 games, equals 24 over the full season and would have seen them relegated with a month to spare last year ! On the road they have lost 11 of their last 14.

Jubilo Iwata did get off the mark last week with a 4-0 beating of Shonan Bellmare and face another promoted team in Venforet Kofu, but two things, the hosts look much the stronger of the promoted teams and have only lost twice in eight starts and finished 9 points + above the others last season and also, Iwata are on the road this time and we have already spoken of their away day woes.

Iwata again look set to be without Jung Woo-Young (6-0-2) in the holding role and were said to be short of suitable options at the back last week, meaning that Masahiko Inoha played in central defence less than 100% fit, he left the field immediately after the third goal was scored, so I think that information was correct and hardly augurs well.” …….

They lost that, but did claim a share of the spoils at FC Tokyo on Monday, snatching a point from the jaws of victory after leading 2-0 with 17 minutes to play and yes, I am being sarcastic ! Jung Woo-Young looks set to miss out again, as does left back Tomohiko Miyazaki, who has missed the last four starts, I have been looking at his record and Iwata have conceded an average of 2.0 goals in every match he has missed in the last two seasons ( 13 games) and 1.39 in the 31 he has played.

Reysol have clearly been focusing on the AFC Champions League and will have one eye on their last 16 trip to Korea to play Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on Wednesday, all their J-League matches this season have gone ”over” and three of the five before CL group games produced at least four goals. This is a traditionally high scoring fixture with the last 20 meetings home and away averaging 3.35 goals and given Reysol’s record this season and that Jubilo look suspect at the back, yet have finally found a few goals ( 7 in their last three starts), it is easy to see this following suit. I am taking 1.5 units ”over” 2.75 goals asian line, but also like over 4.5 goals @ 5.5-6.0 which I am taking for 0.5 units, three of the last four h2h meeting here have produced five or more, including a 3-3 draw, which at odds of 50-1 for a repeat, makes some appeal. Hard to make a guess at what Reysol will do in terms of selection, but I expect some rotation.

This preview is taken from the clubgowi daily newletter, one of six full match previews sent to subscribers today. You can read more about the service on the clubgowi website http://www.clubgowi.com/, also the GOWI blog http://ubet2win.blogspot.co.uk/ and Twitter page https://twitter.com/clubgowi where we are usually pretty active. We are friends of ”Hatten” and there are often small savings to be made for gamblersvardag readers looking to subscribe. Any questions : email gowi8@btinternet.com